What We’re Reading: Malware, Fees and Tablets

Below are interesting stories the Banking.com staff has been reading over the past week. What have you been reading? Let us know in the comments section below or Tweet @bankingdotcom.

 

  • Prepaid Cards Still Have Lots of Fees: Survey

American Banker

A survey by Bankrate.com compares 24 prepaid cards based on the fees they charge consumers. For example, the 2012 survey found that 14 of 18 prepaid cards charged customers a balance inquiry fee on at least some automatic teller machines. This year, 18 of 24 cards charged such a fee on at least some ATMs. In last year’s survey six out of 18 prepaid cards charged fees for at least some declined transactions. This year, nine out of 24 cards did.

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  • FDIC on Social Media Risks

Bank Info Security

As the use of social media grows among banking institutions, federal banking regulators warn those institutions need to be mindful of phishing and spoofing schemes. Drafted guidance issued by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council now details how banks and credit unions can prepare to mitigate the new and emerging risks social media poses. The drafted guidance, issued in January, references applicable laws and regulations banking institutions should consider when planning and conducting their activities related to social media, says Elizabeth Khalil, of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which is part of the FFIEC.

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  • Creating A Customized Banking Experience With Big Data

Bank Systems & Technology

Big data opens the door for banks to group their customers according to their banking preferences, which can make customers more satisfied and more profitable. Banks have been increasingly focused on customer experience in recent years, but they’ve been taking an approach that is too broad, says Dean Nicolackis, a partner at PwC’s banking and capital markets practice. While many banks are trying to configure a customer experience that is consistent for every customer across every channel, the key to a really great customer experience is providing a different personalized experience that fits different customer segments, Nicolackis contends. Different customers just want different things – and are willing to pay for different things – from their bank.

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  • Are Tablets Their Own Channel And Does It Matter?

Business 2 Community

The latest research from Javelin Strategy and Research indicates that the tablet users are older; between the ages of 35 to 54, have an average household income of $75,000, and half of them consider themselves to be early adopters. When compared with mobile banking, statistics show that users spend more time on tablets. The question though is not whether it should be considered a separate channel. However, whether separate or not, the bottom line, from a customer experience point of view, the service has to be consistent, and that is the key – it has to be fully integrated into all the other channels and the interchange between the channels has to be seamless.

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  • SaveUp Program, Other Tools Target Millenials

Credit Union Journal

Frankenmuth Credit Union CEO Vickie Schmitzer is continually focused on implementing industry innovations to attract members of all ages, but especially Millenials. That focus stems from the credit union’s work in the field. “We work as much as we possibly can with our local public and parochial schools at every grade level,” said Schmitzer. “We know they are our credit union’s future and that new technology is what attracts them to a financial institution or business of any kind, for that matter,” said Schmitzer.

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  • First Tech Also First CU to Launch Windows App

Credit Union Journal

First Tech FCU, the credit union for Microsoft Corp., said it has introduced a new Windows Phone mobile banking application, the first credit union in the U.S. to introduce a native Windows Phone mobile banking app complete with integrated mobile deposit and bill pay functionality. First Tech launched its new Windows phone app on-site at the main Microsoft campus in Redmond, Wash., giving employees of Microsoft an in-depth look at this new platform. Microsoft employees and First Tech members will be able to view the app on a giant Microtile phone display, chat with First Tech App experts and personalize their Windows Phone at a laser engraving station.

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  • Malware Attacks Growing, Getting Smarter, Targeting Android: Report

eWEEK

In 2012, 95 percent of malware threats targeted Android, says a new report. Malware attacks are increasing, getting smarter and targeting Google’s Android mobile operating system, according to a new report from NQ Mobile, a mobile security solutions provider that based the report on the findings of its Security Lab. Mobile malware threats increased by 163 percent in 2012, and 95 percent of all threats were targeted at Android, said the report. The firm estimates that 32.8 million Android devices were infected in 2012, an increase of 200 percent from the 10.8 million infected in 2011.

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  • Banks Are Designing Branches to Look Like Apple Stores In a Struggle to Remain Relevant

Go Banking Rates

There are a few regional banks, like Umpaqua, that fully embraced “smart banking” years ago. For major, national banks, it was Citi that sparked the trend. In 2008, beginning with its Singapore location, the bank began constructing futuristic branch prototypes that swapped tellers for touchscreens, size with efficiency, and gave locations the overall look and feel of Apple stores.. Rather than reinventing the wheel when it came to modern design, Citi actually hired the services of Eight, Inc., the architectural and strategic design firm behind Apple, according to The Financial Brand.

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Fast Facts: Cybersecurity

The Financial Services Roundtable recently released another iteration of its Fast Facts, reliable, bullet-point research about issues facing the financial services industry. Topics span TARP, Dodd-Frank, insurance, lending, retirement savings and more. 

The financial services sector and private industry are increasingly targeted by complex cyber-attacks. Attacks can have potentially disastrous effects including theft of confidential data, damage to critical infrastructure, and denial of access to customers, shareholders, or investors.

FACT: The White House has recognized the importance and need for increased cyber defense and information sharing through both a policy directive and executive order signed February 12, 2013.

FACT: The financial industry has successfully withstood three waves of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks beginning in September 2012.

  • DDoS attacks involve a flood of electronic traffic from locations around the world to a website intended to slow down or disable an institutions site.
  • While DDoS attacks are not designed to steal confidential data or expose sensitive personal information, they inconvenience consumers and businesses attempting to access online services and could be leveraged as a distraction for more harmful attacks.

FACT: Information sharing remains one of the best defenses against cyber-attacks.

FACT: Establishing a system where the private and public sectors share and use timely threat intelligence will help America create a more capable and expansive cyber-defense network.

  • Protecting the privacy and security of customers is an industry priority. Information shared is limited to data needed to protect from and respond to cybersecurity attacks.

You can view all previous Fast Facts at www.RoundtableResearch.org.

Copyright © 2013 The Financial Services Roundtable, All rights reserved.

 

What We’re Reading: Digital Wallet, Social Media and Data

Below are interesting stories the Banking.com staff has been reading over the past week. What have you been reading? Let us know in the comments section below or Tweet @bankingdotcom.

  • Digital Wallet Race Is Far From Over

American Banker

Payments players with digital wallet aspirations — including Visa, MasterCard, Google, PayPal, Apple and Isis — are all vying for customers’ virtual pocket books in a race to truly electronic transactions. Yet none have had much luck, so far. There have been delays in launches (e.g. Isis’s delays on launching in its two pilot cities); changes in the way at least one major, digital wallet innovator processes its transactions (think: Google Wallet); and, most importantly, a lack of features appealing enough to spur widespread adoption. “Mobile wallets have been around for a while, and even for us, in the industry, we are only just starting to adopt these technologies,” says Philip Philliou, a payments consultant. “I don’t think anyone is far ahead in terms of disruption. We are still early on.”

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  • 3 Things Banks Must Do to Survive the Mobile Payments Jungle

American Banker

The mobile wallet market appears to be wide open to new entrants, with banks having a slight edge. While more than 20 percent of U.S. online consumers prefer to use their checking account for digital wallet services, 17 percent prefer PayPal, according to Gartner. That gap could quickly close in the next few years. To survive in the mobile payments landscape, banks need to do three things: Integrate mobile into existing offerings. Rebuild loyalty. Banks need to leverage emerging customer analytics techniques, coupled with geo-location services through mobile devices in order to make relevant offers at the right time. Redefine success. It’s no longer sufficient for banks to measure success by counting the number of mobile payments and online users.

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  • All Those New Channels Affecting Accuracy of Data

Credit Union Journal

Credit unions face many challenges as channels diversify and members demand digital options. According to a recent Experian QAS survey, financial institutions are operating through an average of four different channels, the most popular being the organization’s website. While these new channels are exciting endeavors, many credit unions are experiencing problems with collecting accurate contact data. According to that same data, 91% of financial institutions suspect their customer/member and prospect data might be inaccurate in some way. On average, respondents think that as much as 18% of their data might be inaccurate. Even worse, another 27% of respondents are unsure how much of their data is inaccurate.

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  • Introducing The Social Media Power 100 Rankings For Banks And Credit Unions

The Financial Brand

The Power 100 is an interactive list of retail banks and credit unions who have achieved the most social media traction. Components of the Power 100 score include Facebook ‘Likes,’ Facebook engagement rate, Twitter followers, tweets sent, YouTube views and YouTube subscribers. The top 15 institutions in the banking and credit union category are as follows: Chase, Capital One, ICICI Bank, E*TRADE Bank, Bank of American, Axis Bank, GT Bank, Wells Fargo, Citi, Commonwealth, FNB, Navy FCU, Bank of Nova Scotia, NAB and TD Canada.

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  • DDoS: The Worst Case Scenario

Javelin Strategy & Research Blog

Since September of last year, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam has engaged in cyberwarfare against U.S. financial institutions, and it is a war with which they have had a great deal of apparent success if we believe that their goal was to inconvenience U.S. bank customers by rendering online banking portals inaccessible for a number of hours at a time. More than information sharing on best practices is needed – financial institutions should pool resources to ensure the availability of excess network capacity, and network operators must be involved in the effort to identify infected servers and to subsequently stop the malicious traffic its source.  And while intelligence support is a good start, the Federal government must identify those responsible and cripple their ability to continue this campaign.

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  • Facebook tries to get more in your face

Los Angeles Times

It’s hard not to detect a whiff of desperation in Facebook’s new please-don’t-go interface, which is determined to keep people within the social network as long as it can. Facebook Home is intended to dominate Android smartphones, making Facebook your first and last port of call as you traverse the wireless wonderland. It will keep Facebook features front and center, rather than require users to use an app.

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  • Credit Union Takes an Early Lead with E-Signatures

SYS CON Media Blog

Aaron Pugh recently published a story on credit unions using e-signatures on CreditUnions.com. He writes that only eight and a half percent of credit unions larger than $20 million in assets currently offer e-signatures to their customers even though the market for e-signatures as a whole has shot up 48 percent from 2011 to 2012 according to Gartner Research. Among the early adopters in the industry is the Teachers Credit Union in Ontario, Canada. The member-owned financial organization serves employees of education and their families throughout the province. The 15,000 members conduct business through multiple branch locations, ATMs, online and via mobile banking.

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Fast Facts: Dodd-Frank Cumulative Weight

The Financial Services Roundtable recently released another iteration of its Fast Facts, reliable, bullet-point research about issues facing the financial services industry. Topics span TARP, Dodd-Frank, insurance, lending, retirement savings and more.  Below are some updated Fast Facts on The Dodd-Frank Act, which was passed in July 2012 in an effort to reform the financial industry. To date, the complex legislation has been met with mixed success and unintended consequences.

FACT: According to a Davis Polk report, as of March 1, 2013, 148 of the 398 total rulemakings required by Dodd Frank have been finalized, with 129 yet to be proposed.

  • 279 rulemaking requirement deadlines have passed. 176 of these deadlines have been missed, and only 103 have been met with finalized rules.
  • Over the month of February, 12 out of 42 deadlines were met with finalized rules, and no new rules were proposed.

FACT: The General Accounting Office stated that the Dodd Frank Act has had two main financial impacts on institutions; increased regulatory compliance and other costs, and reduced revenue due to restrictions on certain activities.

FACT: In order to understand and comply with the far reaching regulations of the act, agencies and financial institutions have hired more full time employees.

FACT: In August 2012, Standard & Poor’s reported that the Dodd Frank Act could reduce pretax earnings for eight of the largest banks by between $22 billion and $34 billion each year.

  • Much of the higher projected costs reflect the regulators’ likelihood to take a more strict interpretation of the Volcker Rule.
  • The Volcker Rule’s restrictions on proprietary trading and investment in hedge and private equity funds will eliminate past sources of trading and income for some banks.

FACT: The Dodd Frank Act required banks to hold more capital while restricting what qualifies as capital, making payments to investors or retaining earnings more difficult.

The FDIC has announced plans to double the size of the Deposit Insurance Fund, which would take an additional $50 billion out of the industry’s earnings and capital.

You can view all previous Fast Facts at www.RoundtableResearch.org. Copyright © 2013 The Financial Services Roundtable, All rights reserved.

What We’re Reading: Fewer Data Breaches, M&As and Social

Below are interesting stories the Banking.com staff has been reading over the past week. What have you been reading? Let us know in the comments section below or Tweet @bankingdotcom.

 

  • Data Losses Overall Are Up, But Bank Data Breaches Are Fewer: Report

American Banker

A report released by KPMG on Tuesday finds that globally, there’s been a 40% increase in the number of publicly disclosed data loss incidents in the past two years. However, financial services firms have seen an 80% decrease in number of incidents in the past five years. The improvement is a result of effort on the industry’s part, Greg Bell, global and Americas service leader for information protection at KPMG says; “Financial services organizations have done a much better job at defending themselves from cyberattack,” he says.

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  • JPM Plans ‘Organic’ Growth Through Technology, Job Cuts

American Banker

JPMorgan Chase, the country’s largest bank, on Tuesday convened its top executives to discuss its growth strategies. A major component: cutting a net 17,000 jobs over the next two years. But more notable than the job cuts, composed largely of planned attrition in JPMorgan’s consumer bank and about 15,000 cuts in its mortgage operations, was the bank’s resigned attitude about boosting business while waiting for interest rates, regulatory pressures and the overall economy to improve.

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  • What Banks Need To Know About Vendor M&As

Bank Systems & Technology

The recent Fiserv/Open Solutions and FIS/mFoundry deals suggest that the banking industry is going through another wave of vendor consolidation. In 2009, within IDC Financial Insights’ FinTech 100, we lost only two vendors through acquisition. Last year, the number doubled again to eight. The main reason continues to be that companies must increase scale in order to make money in such a competitive environment. Vendors have realized that they need to figure out how to grow organically, acquire competing or complimentary solutions, or become an acquisition target themselves.

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  • Intuit Founder: ‘Success Makes Companies Stupid’

Business Insider

Intuit’s founder, Scott Cook, believes that success can actually be dangerous to the company. At a seminar with Harvard Business School faculty, he said that “Success is a powerful thing, it tends to make companies stupid, and they become less and less innovative.” According to Harvard Business School Working Knowledge, Cook argues that companies need to adopt the lean startup model pioneered by Eric Ries. That means “launching as quickly as possible with a “minimum viable product,” a bare-bones creation that includes just enough features to allow for useful feedback from early adopters. The company then releases a quick succession of product upgrades, forming hypotheses and conducting experiments with each new version along the way.”

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  • Seven Killer Apps All Small Business Owners Should Add to Their Everyday Operation

Business 2 Community

If you don’t already know about Mint, you’ll be glad you do now. A subsidiary of Intuit (the makers of TurboTax and Quicken) Mint is a free web-based tool that manages your personal finances, provides an in-depth look at all of your expenses, and even helps set budgetary goals to help you stay on track. By organizing all of your expenses, you can keep a close eye on every penny you spend on business supplies, gas, food, utilities, etc. When your budget is limited, it’s certainly important to stay on top of your finances in order to reach your goals

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  • As Financial Firms Go Social: The Key Is Integration

Forbes.com

Actiance provides a customizable platform Socialite that firms can use to monitor social media as it is used by its advisors, and ensure that it’s compliant. “Companies are starting to realize that doing social media is not a point product,” Actiance CEO Kailash Ambwani said when asked about his expectations for 2013. “It’s something that needs to be integrated into the firm’s enterprise platform. And it requires resources, overseeing and management.”

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  • It Was A Wonderful Life: How Banks Can Revive Their Reputations

Fast Company

The banks’ Financial Trust Index remained stagnant at 28 percent for December 2012. In other words, three out of four Americans don’t trust their financial institutions. That’s a far cry from the days when public confidence sat at 75 percent–a figure that stood for more than three decades after Clarence got his wings. More specifically, Ernst & Young’s Global Consumer Banking Survey 2012 finds that the number of consumers planning to change banks grew 5 percent last year; that customers with only one bank (also known as brand loyalty) fell 10 percent last year; and that customers with three or more banks are up 11 percent from 2011.

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  • The Future Of Mobile Banking Fueled By Smartphone Cameras

The Financial Brand

The impetus for financial institutions to provide mobile remote deposit capture and mobile photo bill pay is growing. A full 58% of iPhone users finding mobile deposit desirable, and 42% of mobile bankers say they’d like to use photo bill pay. Currently, 40% of all consumers and 66% of mobile bankers find mobile RDC desirable. Another 15% want it but their financial institution doesn’t offer it. This according to a report from Javelin Strategy & Research, who also says that 64% of the top 25 retail banks in the U.S. are now offering mobile deposit.

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  • Card Networks Take On Plastic With Mobile Platforms

Wall Street Journal

The world’s largest payments networks are angling to capture more electronic transactions by eliminating plastic from the equation. Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. on Monday unveiled industry partnerships and technology systems intended to make it easier for consumers to make purchases online, on mobile devices and in physical stores without having to pull out a credit or debit card. MasterCard said its new MasterPass platform will allow cardholders to store their card information in a single software program that can be used to make payments through merchants who sign up for their service.

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The Mobile Revolution: Remote Deposit Capture

The tablet revolution. The post-PC era. The smartphone explosion. No matter what label resonates the most with you personally, the idea is the same: personal computing is changing. People are spending more time with smaller devices, such as tablets and smartphones, and less time on desktops and laptops.

Recent data from Forrester Research, Intuit and Bain & Company point to this mobile revolution:

  • Approximately 90 percent of adults own a mobile device, of which smartphones are rapidly approaching half of all mobile devices in the marketplace.
  • Approximately 96 percent of U.S. households have at least one wireless subscription.
  • Roughly over 1/3 of online bankers are actively using their mobile device to engage with their financial institution, and mobile bankers are accessing their financial information 59 percent more often than non-mobile online bankers.
  • Roughly three-quarters of branch interactions are routine (deposits, withdrawals and account balance inquiries), driving up costs and diverting resources from more important interactions.

The new online and mobile lifestyle requires digital banking as a new way of delivering a connected lifestyle.  Customers would like to bank anytime, anywhere and on any device. Giving your customers the ability to deposit checks anytime and anywhere using a mobile banking app is the next revolution in that connected state.

I recently had the opportunity to analyze the behavior of customers who utilized mobile remote deposit, which was offered by a financial institution who uses Intuit Financial Services for their online and mobile banking platforms. The analysis solely focused on customers who had an open checking account and made at least one deposit into the financial institution in each month of the analyzed time period.

Although the financial institution was less than six months into the product lifecycle, the results were extremely encouraging:

  • Does mobile remote deposit cause customers to frequent the branch/ATM less for their deposit needs?

Intuit research indicates the answer is YES. Mobile remote deposit is changing consumer behavior and transferring more of those routine, costly “human” touch points to a less costly channel. Customers which ultimately used mobile remote deposit were using the branch for 29 percent of their deposits prior to using mobile remote deposit. Once the consumer starting using the service, their deposit behavior at the branch decreased to 19 percent – mobile remote deposit diverted 10 percent of all deposits away from the branch. Customers who never used mobile remote deposit did not experience a shift in their branch behavior. Usage of the ATM for deposits also declined for mobile remote deposit customers – 9.2 percent in the “before” period vs. 6.5 percent in the “after” period.

With the cost of gasoline over $3.50/gallon in most places, from the consumer perspective, think how much it costs (including time inefficiency) to drive to your local branch and make a deposit. Mobile remote deposit saves consumers money and is a more efficient alternative that savvy customers will demand.

What will this shift in behavior – from in-branch to mobile remote deposit – mean for the brick and mortar business model? In the short-term, it doesn’t appear financial institutions are in a hurry to reduce customer service headcount or slow the pace of new branch openings. The digital banking channel has created a more efficient operation; however, should not be viewed as an alternative channel. Rather, digital banking is moving towards more of an extension of the branch and with the reduction of “routine” transactions, in-branch representatives can invest more of their time cross-selling products rather than depositing a check.

  • Does mobile remote deposit cause customers to increase their deposit activity?

Study results from Intuit indicate the answer is YES. Customers who used mobile remote deposit increased their monthly number of deposits by two percent, while those customers who didn’t use the service actually experienced a decline in their number of monthly deposits by three percent. Did the customer using mobile remote deposit magically begin receiving more checks once they started using the service? Likely not, but rather, instead of depositing a check into another financial institution, (perhaps for a savings or retirement account) they now deposited these funds into the financial institution which offered mobile remote deposit, which means the financial institution has further positioned themselves as the customers’ preferred financial institution.

  • Does mobile remote deposit lead to higher consumer acquisition and/or lower consumer attrition?

To be determined. When I measured the results of mobile remote deposit, the financial institution was less than six months into the product offering with its customers The hypothesis is that mobile remote deposit will strengthen the consumer relationship and thus extend the consumer lifecycle. Additionally, now that the financial institution is offering this value-added service, the belief is that this product will attract new customers to the financial institution and win business from the competition. This could be especially true for the Gen Y and Gen X segments. The comment “attracting a younger demographic” is posed as a strategic initiative in my conversations with financial institutions. Over 75 percent of mobile bankers are Gen X and Gen Y, so these demographics will be the most likely to utilize mobile remote deposit.

The customers most likely to adopt the mobile remote deposit feature are cost‐effective bankers. They monitor their finances through the Web or their mobile phone at a higher propensity than all other customers, which lowers operational costs for the financial institution. In short, customers who desire mobile remote deposit utilize technology that is beneficial for the financial institution and the consumer.

About Jason Weinick: Jason is a Senior Analyst with Intuit Financial Services and leads the initiative on client profitability analyses, providing banks and credit unions a valuable in-depth look into the value of the online channel. Jason’s background includes 15 years experience within the financial services sector, focusing on consumer behavior, risk modeling, reporting, and financial analysis. Jason holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Clemson University.

Sources: Forrester Research, May 2011; Intuit Financial Services Profitability Study, April 2012; Bain & Company Customer Loyalty in Retail Banking Americas, 2011

 

Greater Privacy Regulation For Children Online Will Impact Data Collection

*This post originally appeared on Payments Journal

In the coming weeks, federal regulators from the Federal Trade Commission are expected to outline new rules which will make collecting information from children’s online activities much more difficult without parental consent. Mary Engle, the associate director of the advertising practices division at the Commission states, “Today, almost every child has a computer in his pocket and it’s that much harder for parents to monitor what their kids are doing online, who they are interacting with, and what information they are sharing.” She continues, “The concern is that a lot of this may be going on without anybody’s knowledge.”

The current federal rule, the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act of 1998, has become outdated due to new technological advances, say privacy advocate groups, despite the rule mandating the need for websites to obtain parental permission to collect sensitive personal information from children under 13. For example, under the existing rule, no regulation existed monitoring the use of webcams and online photography. However, regulators are expected to mandate that companies seeking children under 13 to submit photos of themselves online would require parental consent.

Generation Z children are the most computer and Internet literate generation in history, and with new technologies and applications continually produced that involve the exchange of personal information, privacy rules are vital. While no one is debating the importance of maintaining the safety of children, both online and offline, the new rules could potentially have a substantial effect on the payment industry, particularly for firms involved in the collection of information and social media websites.

The growing number of Generation Z online users means that the market represents a potential goldmine for online realtors and marketers. The new rules, however, will likely change the ability of firms to accurately target and market their goods and services for the teen and pre-teen markets online. While the added security in the new regulations will provide for children is important, it will slow the growth and development of payment-related technologies for this emerging demographic.

Tristan Hugo-Webb is an analyst with the Mercator Advisory Group covering the international market and U.S. debit card market. His responsibilities include covering new U.S. and international legislative regulations and analyzing their impact on the payment industry in the U.S. and around the world. Tristan is also a frequent contributor to Payments Journal, writing on a series of payments industry issues.

Tristan is a graduate of Seton Hall University in South Orange, NJ, with a BS in Diplomacy and International Relations and Minors in Economics and French. He has spent several years living abroad including stays in Italy, Germany and Niger.

 

Mobile Transactions: Playing with Numbers

Could it be that the only numbers growing faster than mobile transactions are statistics about mobile transactions?

According to a new one just out from ABI Research, mobile shopping will make up nearly a quarter of all global online shopping revenue by the end of 2017. That’s great news for companies invested in this arena, since it clearly represents a sharp spike over the current market, which other estimates place at 10%. However, the same source indicated back in February 2010 that mobile shopping would reach $119 billion in 2015, representing about 8% of the overall e-commerce market.

That’s obviously comparing apples to oranges, but the larger problem is that it’s virtually impossible to accurately predict what’s going to happen with regard to technology use. Technological capabilities are always advancing, and user habits are constantly evolving, but the two phenomena frequently seem unrelated. The emergence of new capabilities does drive usage, of course, just as human needs drive the development of those capabilities, but they seldom happen in tandem. The flood of statistics that keep changing illustrates this problem.

In particular, the intersection of money, technological capabilities and behavioral change make for a strange brew. This is the very essence of a moving target.

Consider mobile payments. Portio Research told us back in March 2010 that 81.3 million people worldwide had used mobile device to make payments the previous year. By the end of 2014, this was predicted to rise to nearly 490 million, or 8% of all mobile subscribers. In June 2011, Yankee Group was putting dollar signs into the mix, reporting that global mobile transactions would reach $241 billion in 2011, and jump to more than $1 trillion by 2015. Fast forward another year, and Gartner was reporting that the number for worldwide mobile payment transaction values in 2011 had been $105.9 billion, and will surpass $171.5 billion in 2012. Bringing it back to users, meanwhile, Gartner said there had been 160.5 million in 2011, and is set to jump to 212.2 million this year.

One more demonstration of how the numbers stack up, even if they don’t add up: Yankee Group identified EMEA as the mobile money hot spot, accounting for 41% of mobile transaction value in 2011, compared to 35% for North America, 22% percent in Asia-Pacific and just 1% percent in Latin America. Others saw it differently: According to IDTechEx (R&M), Feb 2011, Japan had 47 million users adopting tap-and-go phones in just three years, and at the very same time, ComScore was revealing that that in December 2010 alone, 10% of Japanese mobile subscribers had used their mobile wallet to make a purchase—a undeniably a high number.

And how about mobile banking? Try this: In the spring of 2010, Global Industry Analysts (GIA) predicted that the global customer base for mobile banking will reach 1.1 billion by the year 2015, while Berg Insight put the corresponding number at 894 million users. In the summer of 2011, Yankee Group brought the figure down further, to 500 million.

Enough already? For sure. In fact—and again, let’s acknowledge that all this involves mixing apples and oranges and a whole lot besides—it may be time for a moratorium on analyses and predictions. Instead, let’s focus more on what we can do to drive the market rather than track where it’s going.

Smartphones, tablets and other mobile devices still coming down the pike are not just smaller PCs—they represent, and drive, a sea change in behavior. It’s our responsibility to offer applications and services that are flexible, convenient, customized and secure. And the only numbers that count are the ones where we beat even the most optimistic projections.

This article originally appeared as a guest post on MyBankTracker.com.